Book Review

Too Many People

N Engl J Med 1995; 333:464August 17, 1995

Article

Too Many People
By Sir Roy Calne. 143 pp. New York, Riverrun Press, 1995. $15.95. ISBN: 0-7145-4269-5

In this short, serious, and well-written book, Sir Roy Calne joins the ranks of many others who have expressed their concern about the world population explosion. He endorses the conclusions of the world's national academies of science (which are included as an appendix in the book) that we must achieve zero population growth by the middle of the 21st century to maintain a stable global environment. He provides statistics that state the problem clearly. The global fertility rate is now 3.3 children per woman. Even if it declines to 2.1 over the next 50 years, the world's population is projected to double to 11 billion before leveling off at the end of the 21st century. If the rate is reduced only to 2.5, there will be 19 billion inhabitants by the year 2100 and a staggering 28 billion by 2150. The earth's finite resources and the current population increase are incompatible with the continued existence of the human species as we know it today. Nearly 20 percent of the earth's population lives in poverty now, mainly in less developed countries, and nearly half of that group is at a starvation level. One quarter of the population lives in developed countries, which are responsible for 85 percent of the world's gross population. Those same countries consume most of what is produced, often with extreme wastage.

The author's basic theme is that the population increase and the consequent disruption of the ecological balance of the planet are the result of advancements in science and technology. He singles out medical advances in the control and treatment of disease as a major factor, and he argues that only through the application of science and technology is there any chance of averting ecological disaster, famine, and conflict on an unimaginable scale. He briefly traces the history of civilization and examines human nature, behavior, reproduction, and inheritance, relating them to the scientific discoveries of Copernicus, Mendel, Darwin, and Newton. He concludes that the desire to reproduce and dominate are basic genetic traits that have not changed and will not change, although they are linked to and modified by culture, politics, and religion. In primitive and medieval times, conflicts between tribes or cultures planted seeds of ethnic hatred, but they had only local or regional consequences. The impact of science and technology on population size and weaponry has had global consequences. Medicine, hygiene, engines, and weapons of mass destruction, coupled with a burgeoning population, have changed patterns of living, threatened the environment, and depleted natural resources. In developed countries there is waste, the breakdown of the traditional family unit, and social unrest among the underprivileged (Singapore is a noted exception). In developing countries there is overpopulation, famine, and starvation. Political regimes have refused either to appreciate the problem or to do anything substantial about it. Sir Roy recognizes that political and economic objectives of individual nations are often at odds with environmental protection, and he is outwardly cynical about politicians, bureaucrats, lawyers, and government officials. In his analysis of the human condition, Sir Roy touches on myriad subjects — euthanasia, gunpowder, chromosomes, Van Gogh — which he weaves together easily in a storyteller's fashion.

The author wants to establish a laboratory for population studies under the aegis of the United Nations but independent in the sense that the scientists would be free from pressure from political and national interests. The scientists would have to be committed and strongly motivated, and the institution should be completely lacking a paralytic bureaucratic structure. The mandate would be broad and the topics comprehensive, including population and birth control, food and natural resources, unemployment and immigration, racial and religious prejudice, and crime and punishment. It would require a superhuman effort on a global scale, with developed countries of necessity taking the lead, and it would have to be embraced by less well developed countries. Sir Roy has identified crucial linkages between family size and education and financial incentives. Rich nations would be obliged to resolve the destructive consequences of feeding their insatiable appetites for fuel, food, and natural resources. Key to successful implementation of the scientists' recommendations would be the political will to change.

In this book Sir Roy provides a reasoned, intellectual view of the ills of humankind and the frailties of human nature. He has issued a wake-up call for scientists and the leaders of the world, asking them to work together toward a solution to the population problem. His views are stimulating, and I found myself nodding in agreement with much of what he says. It is not ironic that the author has six children, lives in a rich country, and belongs to a profession that has helped to create the population problem. It is from his heart and his conscience that he has written this book. One can only hope that those in positions of power and influence will exercise the same conscience in grasping the issues he has raised and take the appropriate measures to deal with them. After scientists read this book, there should be a groundswell of scientific support for his ideas. The book needs to be put in the hands of influential politicians, whose obligation should be to make the world's population problem part of national and international agendas. We witness today ethnic and religious atrocities, people living in degrading squalor, environmental disasters, fishing “wars,” and what Sir Roy refers to several times in his book as “the raping of the earth.” He ends the book poignantly with a message from the Creator to modern humans. Even if one is not inclined to think providentially, the message is unassailable. Homo sapiens is destined to become Homo extinctus if the population increase continues without constraint and the resources of the planet are exhausted.

William J. Wall, M.D.
University Hospital, University of Western Ontario, London, ON N6A 5A5, Canada