Original Article
Smoking Cessation and Severity of Weight Gain in a National Cohort
N Engl J Med 1991; 324:739-745March 14, 1991
- Abstract
- Abstract
Background.
Many believe that the prospect of weight gain discourages smokers from quitting. Accurate estimates of the weight gain related to the cessation of smoking in the general population are not available, however.
Methods.
We related changes in body weight to changes in smoking status in adults 25 to 74 years of age who were weighed in the First National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES I, 1971 to 1975) and then weighed a second time in the NHANES I Epidemiologic Follow-up Study (1982 to 1984). The cohort included continuing smokers (748 men and 1137 women) and those who had quit smoking for a year or more (409 men and 359 women).
Results.
The mean weight gain attributable to the cessation of smoking, as adjusted for age, race, level of education, alcohol use, illnesses related to change in weight, base-line weight, and physical activity, was 2.8 kg in men and 3.8 kg in women. Major weight gain (>13 kg) occurred in 9.8 percent of the men and 13.4 percent of the women who quit smoking. The relative risk of major weight gain in those who quit smoking (as compared with those who continued to smoke) was 8.1 (95 percent confidence interval, 4.4 to 14.9) in men and 5.8 (95 percent confidence interval, 3.7 to 9.1) in women, and it remained high regardless of the duration of cessation. For both sexes, blacks, people under the age of 55, and people who smoked 15 cigarettes or more per day were at higher risk of major weight gain after quitting smoking. Although at base line the smokers weighed less than those who had never smoked, they weighed nearly the same at follow-up.
Conclusions.
Major weight gain is strongly related to smoking cessation, but it occurs in only a minority of those who stop smoking. Weight gain is not likely to negate the health benefits of smoking cessation, but its cosmetic effects may interfere with attempts to quit. Effective methods of weight control are therefore needed for smokers trying to quit. (N Engl J Med 1991; 324:739–45.)
Media in This Article
Figure 1
Mean Body-Mass Index in the Study Subjects at Base Line (1971–1975) and Follow-up (1982–1984), According to Smoking Status.Table 1
Base-Line Characteristics of the Study Subjects, According to Smoking Status.Article Activity
- Article
DESPITE the well-publicized adverse health effects of tobacco and the declining prevalence of smoking in the United States, slightly more than one in four adults continue to smoke cigarettes.1 Some smokers may be reluctant to stop smoking because the disadvantages of smoking cessation are realized soon after they quit, whereas the advantages are less certain and occur in the future.2 One potential disadvantage of smoking cessation – weight gain – is a widely held concern of both the public at large and health professionals.3 , 4 In fact, surveys of both smokers and nonsmokers report that concern about body weight is related to starting and continuing to smoke and may be related to the resumption of smoking in those who quit.5 6 7 8
There is an inverse relation between smoking and body weight.9 Several mechanisms by which smoking decreases body weight have been proposed, including alterations in insulin homeostasis,10 lipoprotein lipase activity,11 the activity of the sympathetic nervous system,12 physical activity,13 , 14 and preferences in food consumption.15
The recent report of the Surgeon General16 reviewed 15 prospective epidemiologic studies and estimated that the average weight gain attributable to the cessation of smoking was about 1.8 kg (4 lb) in both sexes. Such studies have limitations, however, including high attrition rates, short duration, lack of appropriate controls, self-reports of body weight, and the participation of subjects with previously diagnosed heart disease, subjects enrolled in risk-reduction programs, paid volunteers, and pregnant women.16 , 17 In addition, neither the relative risk of gaining various amounts of weight nor smokers' perceptions of unwanted cosmetic change have been studied.
Because of these limitations, accurate estimates of the weight gain attributable to the cessation of smoking in men and women in the United States are not available. To provide such estimates we studied a nationally representative cohort of smokers and nonsmokers followed from 1971 to 1984 to determine the sex-specific mean weight gain attributable to the cessation of smoking, as well as the effect of quitting smoking on the risk of gaining various amounts of weight. We also sought to identify the characteristics of smokers that increase the risk of weight gain after quitting.
Methods
Study Population
The data we analyzed were from the 1982–1984 Epidemiologie Follow-up Study of the First National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES I), a prospective study of subjects first examined from 1971 to 1975. NHANES I was a national probability survey carried out by the National Center for Health Statistics, based on a multistage stratified cluster sample of the noninstitutionalized civilian population of the United States.18 Between 1982 and 1984, an attempt was made to follow up all 14,407 adults whose age at base line was 25 to 74 years. By 1984, 93 percent of the cohort had been successfully traced and their vital status determined.18
Of the 14,407 members of the original cohort, the following were excluded from this analysis: 1024 (7.1 percent) for whom vital status was missing at follow-up; 838 (5.8 percent) who were found to be alive but were not reinterviewed; 2022 (14.0 percent) who had died; 101 (0.7 percent) who were pregnant at either base line or follow-up; 560 (3.9 percent) whose height or weight was unknown at either base line or follow-up; 299 (2.1 percent) for whom values for smoking status were missing or inconsistent at base line or follow-up; and 231 (1.6 percent) with missing values for one or more of the covariates used in the analysis. This left 9332 members of the original cohort.
Definition of Smoking Status
Information on smoking habits at base line was available from the NHANES I data for the random half of the respondents who received a detailed examination. At the follow-up interview a history of lifetime smoking patterns, including periods of stopping and starting, was sought from all respondents. For those not asked their smoking status at base line, the detailed smoking history obtained at follow-up was used to establish the status at base line. This is a highly accurate method of determining smoking status.19
We defined six mutually exclusive groups based on smoking status at the base-line and follow-up interviews. Those who had never smoked were defined as those who reported at both the base-line and follow-up interviews that they had smoked fewer than 100 cigarettes in their lives. Former smokers were defined as those who were exsmokers at both the base-line and follow-up interviews and had not started smoking in the interim. Intermittent smokers were defined as those who smoked at both base line and follow-up but had quit for more than a year in the interim. Continuing smokers were defined as those who smoked at both base line and follow-up and had not quit smoking for a year or more in the interim. Sustained quitters were defined as those who smoked at base line but had quit smoking for a year or more at follow-up. Recent quitters were defined as those who smoked at base line but had quit within a year of their follow-up interview. The subgroup of smokers who were interviewed at base line were asked how much they currently smoked. At the follow-up interview all the respondents who had ever smoked cigarettes were asked to report the amount they had usually smoked when they were smokers. Separate categorical variables were used to measure the number of cigarettes smoked per day: 1 to 14, 15 to 24, and 25 or more. The duration of cessation (in years) in sustained quitters was determined by subtracting their reported age at cessation from their age at follow-up. Information on the age at cessation was unavailable for 142 subjects.
Groups with relatively rare patterns of smoking (3.6 percent of the sample) were excluded because of limited power to estimate their sex-specific changes in weight. These groups included 22 subjects who started smoking for the first time after the base-line examination, 126 who reported smoking cigarettes but never on a regular basis, 120 who reported being exsmokers at base line but current smokers at follow-up, and 60 who reported being exsmokers at both base line and follow-up but who had smoked for a year or more in the interim. A total of 9004 persons (3365 men and 5639 women) were thus included in the final sample.
Weight Gain
The methods used to measure height and weight in this study have been previously described.20 , 21 At base line the subjects' height and weight were measured under controlled conditions in mobile examination trailers. Weight was measured with a self-balancing scale. Examination clothing consisted of disposable paper uniforms and slippers. At follow-up, the subjects were weighed without shoes on a portable spring scale in their homes. Height was not measured again. We adjusted for the weight of indoor clothing by subtracting 1.6 kg from the measured weight, as has been done in other studies.22 , 23
In this analysis we examined weight change in kilograms as both a continuous and categorical variable. We defined four categories of weight gain. The first category included persons who had gained 3.0 kg or less during the follow-up period (2299 men and 3618 women). The second category included those who had gained more than 3.0 but not more than 8.0 kg (704 men and 1211 women). The third category included those who had gained more than 8.0 but not more than 13.0 kg (245 men and 495 women), and the fourth category included those who had gained more than 13.0 kg ( 117 men and 315 women).
Covariates
We adjusted for several potential confounders of the relation between weight gain and smoking status. Both age and body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) at base line were coded as continuous variables with quadratic terms to account for possible nonlinear effects on change in weight.20 Race was dichotomized as white or nonwhite, and level of education was coded according to number of years of schooling: <12, 12, and >12. In some analyses, base-line weight was coded as a categorical variable; overweight was defined as a body-mass index of 3≥27.8 in men and ≥27.3 in women, and underweight was defined as a body-mass index of ≤20.7 in men and ≤19.1 in women.24
Information on levels (low, medium, or high) of recreational and nonrecreational physical activity as reported by the subjects was available from the base-line and follow-up interviews. The subjects' responses were divided into five categories: high at both interviews, moderate at both interviews, low at both interviews, activity increased from base line to follow-up, and activity decreased from base line to follow-up.
A series of similar questions was used at the base-line and follow-up interviews to assess alcohol consumption. Four categories of drinking were defined: nondrinker at both interviews, drinker at both interviews, started drinking after base line, and stopped drinking after base line.
We identified conditions reported at the follow-up interview that could have affected body weight. These were diagnoses of thyroid problems, a heart condition, diabetes, or hypertension by a physician, and reported hospitalization since 1970 for cancer, chronic lung disease, colitis, or cirrhosis. The number of conditions reported was used as a continuous (one through five) variable. We also used a set of categorical variables defined as none, one, or two or more conditions and a model in which persons with any of these conditions were excluded. Since the relation between smoking cessation and weight gain was similar in each model, only results from the models in which the conditions were reported as a continuous variable are presented.
On the basis of the reproductive history obtained at the follow-up interview, the women were divided into four groups: nulliparous, parous with the last live birth before the base-line examination, parous with the first live birth after the base-line examination, and parous with live births both before and after the base-line examination.
Statistical Analysis
We carried out sex-specific analyses, first adjusting only for age at base line and duration of follow-up (mean in the men, 9.8 years; range, 6.7 to 12.6; and mean in the women, 10.0; range, 6.7 to 12.5), then reestimating the results with adjustment for all the covariates listed above. The results of the partially and fully adjusted analyses were similar. All the results reported here are fully adjusted.
Multiple linear-regression analysis was used to estimate the mean difference in weight change between the subjects who continued to smoke and the other groups,25 and to estimate the mean absolute weight gain for each group.26 We used multinomial logisticregression analysis to estimate the odds ratios for the categories of weight gain of more than 3.0 kg for each smoking-status group relative to continuing smokers.27 Because there were relatively few subjects in the highest category of weight gain (>13 kg), the odds ratios for this level of weight gain will closely estimate the relative risk. We also estimated the odds ratios (relative to continuing smokers) for the categories of weight gain for sustained quitters of one to three, four to six, and seven or more years' duration. In a separate analysis, sex-specific multinomial logistic-regression models were analyzed for sustained quitters only, in order to identify base-line characteristics of quitters that might be related to subsequent weight gain.
Results
Base-Line Characteristics
As compared with the continuing smokers, the sustained quitters tended to be somewhat older and better educated (Table 1Table 1
Base-Line Characteristics of the Study Subjects, According to Smoking Status.). They were also more likely to be white and more likely to have been lighter smokers. Former smokers and those who had never smoked tended to be the oldest and to have the highest mean body-mass indexes among the groups. These results were similar for both men and women.As compared with the continuing smokers, those who became sustained quitters had a slightly higher mean body-mass index at base line; the mean difference in the men was 0.6 (P = 0.04), and in the women 0.5 (P = 0.16). These results were related to differences in the amount smoked by continuing smokers and the amount sustained quitters had smoked; after we adjusted for the amount smoked the mean differences decreased to 0.4 (P = 0.10) in the men and 0.3 (P = 0.31) in the women.
Differences in Mean Weight Gain
Regardless of smoking status, the women tended to gain about 1 to 2 kg more than the men during the follow-up period (Table 2Table 2
Linear Regression Estimates of the Mean Difference in Weight Gain between Continuing Smokers and Other Groups.*). Among both men and women, the sustained quitters gained the most weight, whereas the women who continued to smoke and the men who smoked intermittently gained the least. The mean weight gain attributable to the cessation of smoking (the difference between sustained quitters and continuing smokers) was 1 kg higher in the women (3.8 kg) than in the men (2.8 kg). The mean weight gain of the former smokers and those who had never smoked was very similar in both men and women.Effects on Level of Weight Gain
Table 3Table 3
Category of Weight Gain According to Smoking Status. shows that the majority of subjects gained 3 kg or less during the follow-up period, regardless of smoking status. The only exception was the women who were sustained quitters; slightly fewer than half of them gained 3 kg or less.Among men, the risk of gaining 3 to 8 kg varied little from one group to another, whereas the risk of gaining >8 to 13 kg varied substantially, ranging from 20.2 percent in the recent quitters to 4.7 percent in the former smokers. The sustained quitters had the greatest risk of gaining more than 13 kg (9.8 percent), and former smokers, those who had never smoked, and continuing smokers had the smallest risk.
Among women, there was relatively little variation according to smoking status in the risk of gaining 13 kg or less. As with men, however, the sustained quitters had the greatest risk of gaining more than 13 kg (13.4 percent), whereas the women who had never smoked, former smokers, and continuing smokers had the smallest risk.
The results of the multinomial logistic-regression analyses indicated that smoking cessation had a strong effect on the degree of weight gain (Table 4Table 4
Odds Ratios Estimated by Logistic Regression for the Effect of Smoking Status and Duration of Cessation on the Severity of Weight Gain.*). Relative to the continuing smokers, the odds ratios for weight gain in both men and women who were sustained quitters increased with the degree of weight gain, with the highest odds ratios, 8.1 in men and 5.8 in women, for a gain of more than 13 kg. Among both men and women, recent cessation was less strongly associated with a gain of more than 13 kg, and the intermittent smokers, those who had never smoked, and former smokers had only moderately elevated odds ratios for any category of weight gain.Among sustained quitters the odds ratios for the categories of weight gain remained substantially elevated regardless of the duration of smoking cessation. For a weight gain of more than 13 kg, however, the peak odds ratio occurred four to six years after smoking cessation in both sexes.
Attained Weight at Base Line and Follow-up
Differences in attained weight were also examined. Figure 1Figure 1
Mean Body-Mass Index in the Study Subjects at Base Line (1971–1975) and Follow-up (1982–1984), According to Smoking Status. shows the sex-specific mean values for body-mass index at base line and follow-up for the sustained quitters and the continuing smokers, those who had never smoked, and former smokers (data for intermittent smokers and recent quitters are not shown in order to improve visual clarity). These values were adjusted for the same set of covariates used in the previous multivariate analyses, except body-mass index at base line. For both men and women, the average effect of smoking cessation was to raise the body weights of those who quit smoking to a level similar to that of the subjects who had never smoked. The mean base-line values for body-mass index in the continuing smokers and the sustained quitters were not significantly different for men (P>0.16) or women (P>0.44), whereas the mean values in the sustained quitters and those who had never smoked were significantly different (P<0.0003 for the men and <0.0001 for the women). At follow-up the values were not significantly different (P>0.66 for the men and >0.41 for the women). The results were similar for the comparisons of body-mass index between the sustained quitters and the former smokers.Predictors of Weight Gain in the Sustained Quitters
We examined several variables that might be collected by smoking-cessation programs and used to identify persons at greatest risk of subsequent weight gain. For this purpose, our analysis was limited to sustained quitters only (Table 5Table 5
Logistic Regression Estimates of the Effects of Base-Line Characteristics on the Odds of Subsequent Weight Gain among Persons Who Quit Smoking for a Year or More.*). In both men and women, black quitters had substantially higher odds of weight gain than their nonblack counterparts. This was especially true for weight gain in excess of 13 kg, in which the odds in blacks were about three times the odds in nonblacks (2.9 in men and 3.3 in women). Base-line weight had little relation to subsequent weight gain in the men who quit smoking. In the women, however, being underweight increased the odds of gaining more than 13 kg nearly fourfold. In both men and women, level of education had an inconsistent relation to level of weight gain, with wide confidence intervals around the estimates of odds ratios. The amount smoked was strongly related to the risk of subsequent severe weight gain; as compared with the odds ratios in those who smoked fewer than 15 cigarettes per day, the odds ratios for gaining more than 13 kg for those who smoked 25 or more cigarettes per day were 5.7 in men and 4.7 in women. Men who reported low recreational physical activity at base line were somewhat less likely to gain weight after quitting smoking. In women, however, low recreational physical activity was related to an increased risk of weight gain, and the odds ratios increased in magnitude with increasing levels of weight gain, from 1.1 to 1.6 to 3.2. Both men and women under the age of 55 who quit smoking had a much higher risk of subsequent weight gain than older subjects; the odds ratios for gaining more than 13 kg in men and women were 5.3 and 8.3, respectively. As compared with nulliparous women, those who had had one or more live births were at increased risk of weight gain after they stopped smoking. Although the effect of parity increased with increasing levels of weight gain, the confidence intervals were wide.In order to see whether these factors had similar effects on weight gain in those who had not quit smoking during the study period, we repeated these analyses with separate sex-specific models for those who had never smoked, former smokers, and continuing smokers (data not shown). In general, race was only weakly related to subsequent weight gain in these groups, except for men who had never smoked, among whom blacks were about two to three times as likely as nonblacks to gain more than 8 kg. The effect of baseline weight in the men in the other groups was similar to that in the sustained quitters. For women, however, overweight rather than underweight was more strongly related to subsequent weight gain in the other groups. For both men and women, level of education, physical activity, and age showed relations to weight gain that were similar to those found in the sustained quitters.
Discussion
In this national cohort of adults followed for 10 years, the mean weight gain after cessation of smoking was 2.8 kg in men and 3.8 kg in women. However, 9.8 percent of the men and 13.4 percent of the women who quit gained more than 13 kg, and they were, respectively, 8.1 and 5.8 times more likely than continuing smokers to have gained more than 13 kg. For the average quitter, the increased risk of major weight gain remained high, regardless of the duration of cessation. By the end of the study, however, the mean body weight of those who had quit had increased only to that of those who had never smoked.
We also found that among recent quitters (≤1 year) both the mean weight gain and the relative risk of major weight gain were lower than among the sustained quitters (>1 year). This may explain the lower estimate of weight gain (1.8 kg) in the Surgeon General's report, which was based on 15 studies with a median duration of cessation of only two years,16 as compared with five years in this study.
Using women's weight histories, one study reported an increase in weight for at least 25 years after the cessation of smoking.28 In our study the relative risk of weight gain in those who had quit smoking before the base-line examination (the former smokers) was only about one quarter that in the sustained quitters (Table 4). Given that the median duration of cessation in former smokers was 19 years, our findings suggest that the rate of weight gain in those who quit smoking does decrease, but only after an extended period.
At base line and follow-up the mean body-mass index of the subjects who had never smoked and the former smokers was similar, but higher than that of the continuing smokers. By the end of the study, smoking cessation had raised the mean body-mass index of the quitters to that of the subjects who had never smoked, but not higher (Fig. 1). This suggests that smoking lowers weight and that after one quits, weight tends to return to the level of people who have never smoked.
Little is known about the characteristics of those who quit smoking and gain large amounts of weight.16 Younger age, lean body build, and heavier smoking have been related to weight gain after quitting.16 , 29 Our study found that people of either sex who smoked 15 or more cigarettes a day or were under the age of 55 had more than double the risk of major weight gain. Only in women, however, did we find that being underweight and sedentary were strong predictors of major weight gain. We also found blacks of both sexes to have a substantially higher risk of weight gain after cessation, whereas race had little effect on weight gain among those who had never smoked, former smokers, and continuing smokers. This unique finding needs to be confirmed by other studies.
Few studies have examined the effect of smoking cessation on the degree of weight gain.16 In a study of 1302 Swedish women followed for six years30 the risk of gaining 10 kg or more was 4 percent in continuing smokers and 13 percent in quitters. Lower risks of major weight gain were found in over 13,000 smokers in California who were followed for an average of 1.5 years31; the risk of gaining ≥9.1 kg (≥20 lb) was below 2 percent in the continuing smokers and about 4 percent in those who quit. These lower estimates are probably due to the short period of follow-up.
On average, the women who quit smoking gained more weight than the men, a finding consistent with studies in which nicotine had greater effects on body weight in female rats than male rats.32 , 33 The greater risk of weight gain in women may thus be due to biologic rather than cultural factors.
A potential limitation of our study was the use of self-reports to assess smoking status. This may have resulted in the misclassification of some smokers as quitters, especially later in the study, as smoking became less socially acceptable. However, underreporting of smoking does not appear to have increased in the United States.34 Moreover, underreporting would have led to an underestimation of the effect of smoking cessation on weight gain.
The health benefits of quitting smoking may have been partly reduced in the subjects who gained large amounts of weight. In women, gaining more than 10 kg after the age of 18 increases the risk of coronary heart disease.35 Any deleterious effects of major weight gain in former smokers are small, however, when compared with the harmful effects of smoking, such as cancer, coronary heart disease, pulmonary disease, and peripheral vascular disease.36 In our view, a resumption of smoking due to the unwanted cosmetic effects of weight gain is the most serious potential consequence for those trying to quit.7 In addition, the experience of the minority of quitters who gain large amounts of weight may discourage other smokers from quitting.
Both smoking-cessation programs and weight-control programs have limited effectiveness.37 , 38 Few trials have combined smoking cessation and weight control, and their results are disappointing.6 Research aimed at minimizing weight gain after smoking cessation is thus sorely needed. Such research might shed light on the equally vexing problem of preventing obesity and at the same time help increase the percentage of smokers who can quit permanently.
Those who counsel smokers should emphasize that the average person who quits smoking will gain only 2 to 4 kg, and that about half those who quit will gain less. The beneficial effects of quitting smoking are not likely to be negated by the weight gain that may follow.
We are indebted to Dr. Neil Grunberg for his many helpful suggestions; to Dr. Robert Klesges, Dr. Frederick Trowbridge, Dr. Ronald Davis, Dr. Juliette Kendrick, Dr. Richard Rothenberg, Ms. Barbara Gray, and Dr. Henry Kahn for their useful comments; and to Dr. Dana Flanders for advice on statistical aspects of the analysis.
Source Information
From the Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Centers for Disease Control, Atlanta (D.F.W., R.F.A., G.A.G., T.B.), and the National Center for Health Statistics, Hyattsville, Md. (J.M., J.C.K.). Address reprint requests to Dr. Williamson at the Division of Nutrition, M.S. A-41, Centers for Disease Control, Atlanta, GA 30333.
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